Mr. Yukio Okamoto, a famous scholar of international politics, lectured on “whether the dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea will start,” at the Foreign Affairs Committee, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). His lecture based on the unique analysis and explanation is summarized as follows.
From the viewpoint of current international political affairs, and based on historical facts in modern history as well as contemporary history, three political leaders, that is, Russian President Putin, China’s President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, will probably be keeping their regimes even after 2030. Russia is trying to return to Stalin’s era, China to Mao Zedong’s era, and North Korea also wishes to return to the era before the Korean War. These non-democratic countries seem to be moving toward a new dictatorship aiming at the ‘revival or throwing back’.
With regard to the dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea through South Korea’s mediation, we should not rely on North Korea’s denuclearization. It is said that North Korea will be able to complete its capacity for the nuclear attack on the mainland of the U.S. very soon by testing a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which would travel more than 13,000 km, with a miniature nuclear warhead capable of re-entering the earth’s atmosphere. North Korea is intending to gain enough time to make tests of these techniques while the dialogue between the U. S. and North Korea is going on. Despite the dialogue, Japan should continue its economic sanctions and pressure on North Korea. Probability of the armed clash between the two countries is said to be about 15%.
Japan should strengthen the defensive or interceptor missiles against the North Korea’s missile attack, and the preemptive attack by launching the defensive missiles at their bases is possible when justifiable. Japan should not develop any nuclear weapons.
Regarding the dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea, I would rather highly evaluate it within certain conditions, unlike Mr. Okamoto’s comments. According to today’s news, President Trump has agreed to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a result of his meeting with South Korean envoy at the White House who conveyed Kim Jong-un’s message to the President.