North Korea enforced the 6th nuclear test, the largest size in the past on September 3. It was ten times larger than the atomic bomb in Hiroshima and possibly, it was a hydrogen bomb. Not only the U.S. but also Japan and South Korea took a decisive attitude and added strong measures. The UN Security Council will decide new economic sanctions on September 11. China and Russia also condemned North Korea severely, but they are continuing to insist that a room for the dialogue with North Korea should remain.
We cannot expect to control North Korea’s nuclear and missile development by strengthening economic sanctions, and stopping petroleum and gas completely. It is because North Korea is already prepared for the armed conflict with the U.S. in case such sanctions are continued. On the other hand, the U.S. President Trump does not deny resorting to the military power and the tension of an explosive situation between the two countries is arising. After all, unexpected accidents might happen.
In my view, there is no other way except the dialogue between the U.S and North Korea. In other words, direct contact between the two, that is, a dialogue. Tactics between the two countries seems to result in North Korea’s triumph by its tenacity, but we do not have to be pessimistic about it. If this dialogue can prevent the war, it will be the best for the whole world and all mankind. As I previously mentioned, fundamentally, a match between President Trump and Kim Jong-un is not symmetrical. While President Trump and the U.S., Japan, and Korea on one side are not allowed to victimize even a citizen in their countries, from the standpoint of Kim Jong-un, even if hundreds or thousands of citizens in North Korea are victimized by the war, it is nothing but a necessary evil to defend the state. In short, the weight of “hostages” victimized by the armed conflict is different for the two.
The U.S, does not have to be ashamed of having a dialogue with North Korea. Though it is painful, it cannot be helped that we would admit North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons as it is. The focus of the dialogue is on the following: we will let North Korea stop the development of nuclear weapons, or both could agree to freezing all nuclear weapons as they are, or we will strongly demand the entire denuclearization as initially intended. Furthermore, in case North Korea insists on such demands as contracting the Peace Treaty between the U.S. and North Korea surpassing a ‘Cease-Fire Agreement’ of the Korean War, and the U.S. army should withdraw from Japan and North Korea, Japan should make the best efforts to solve such incidents by means of the highest level of diplomatic tactics. However, these issues will not be the reasons for avoiding the dialogue between the two.
How about Japanese and South Korean policies? At present, the fact of North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons cannot be denied, but the question whether we admit it officially depends on the decision of Japan’s domestic politics. It is not necessary to pull down a flag for denuclearization in the Korean Peninsula, but it is indispensable to formulate a new security policy, at least, based on the fact of North Korea’s possession of the nuclear weapons. On this occasion, a movement for nuclear armament would arise in South Korea, and in Japan nuclear argument might begin ( ‘Nuclear Domino Theory’ ). In my view, from the viewpoint of banning nuclear weapons and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, Japan and South Korea should not aim at the possession of nuclear weapons. However, the decision on how to define the U.S. nuclear strategy will become a matter of life and death for Japan and South Korea. For example, the question is whether the security of Japan and South Korea is enough only under the U.S. nuclear umbrella in a new diagram or dimension.
Policies toward North Korea until now on the side of the U.S., Japan and Korea should be reflected seriously in the sense that they have been relying on China and Russia excessively. While an ultimate goal of the U.S., Japan and South Korea is the ‘denuclearization’ of North Korea, China and Russia aim at preserving the status quo of North Korea and their commitments. Purpose and goal on both sides are fundamentally different, and thus, it is a matter of course that their mutual actions cannot go well. In the UN Security Council, decisions on sanctions are always disputed. China’s exports, imports and financial assistance support North Korea’s real economy. Russia’s military technology consolidates the foundation of North Korea’s nuclear and missile development, and trade and assistance for the tourism industry benefit the nation’s life. Taking these into consideration, we should be aware of limitations and doubled-faced activities in the roles of China and Russia in their relations with North Korea.
Indeed, Japan should strengthen its pressure and economic sanctions against North Korea strongly, but for whatever reasons, we should not expose our nation to fire in the war which might be caused by the accidental conflict between the U.S. and North Korea. In addition, we should realize the dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea, and it is necessary to solve the current nuclear and missile issues politically, diplomatically and peacefully. For this purpose, Japan should utilize the highest diplomatic strategies.